Rather than my usual thoroughly planned and well-structured articles, this is going to be more me spitballing — something more akin to a “hot take” than my usual stuff.
When I finally returned to the theater a few weeks ago, I saw the trailer for “Greenland” ahead of my movie. In case you don’t know, “Greenland” is basically the 2020 version of “2012.” A giant meteorite or whatever is going to destroy the Earth, and Gerard Butler must get his family to safety in Greenland.
As I watched the trailer, I couldn’t help but cringe. 2020, AKA the year of disasters, is probably the worst time to release a movie like this, and I will be absolutely shocked if “Greenland” doesn’t bomb if/when it releases stateside in a few weeks.
A lot of things are going to change because of the pandemic, and we’ll see the ripple effects in the film industry for years. However, for now, I’m going to focus on the production side of the issue, as there’s already a great Deadline article talking more about the distribution side. Also, Ryan continues to bring it up on the podcast, given how many movies are moving to VOD or are pushing their release dates (again).
So, here’s how I anticipate the film industry — which I’ll say includes both movies and TV shows — will start to change.
- Action movies/TV shows will stay the hell away from “bioterrorism / a worldwide virus” as a plotline. If I remember “Hobbs & Shaw” correctly — because it was a shit movie — the whole plot centered on the female lead being infected with a virus that Idris Elba’s villain wanted to extract so he could spread it worldwide and kill the bulk of the human race. Yeah, we won’t get any more plotlines like that.
- Also, movies about the world ending (ie, “Greenland”) won’t be made anymore, unless they’re trying to be more horror genre than action.
- On the whole, I think blockbusters will be fewer and farther between, but they will be more action-packed and spectacle-driven. If you want to get people to leave their homes and see movies in the theaters, you’re going to need to give them a real reason to do so. “Tenet” is a good example of this. Smaller-budget movies (romcoms, dramas, etc.) will move more onto streaming services. No need to release something like “The Personal History of David Copperfield” in the theater when no one’s going to physically go out and see it. Just put it on Amazon or Netflix.
- Contrastingly, I think TV shows will go smaller budget. Network and cable television is really struggling to compete with streaming services, and some of them are trying to break into that market as well (ie, NBC’s Peacock). I think networks aren’t going to invest as much in their shows until they’ve seen they can be successful in the COVID-19 era. At this point, people are so bored, they might watch whatever’s on, right? So, throw everything at the wall and see what sticks. “SNL” seemed to do pretty well streaming from their homes, as did the “30 Rock” special. More action-driven shows like “The Blacklist” will really have to prove their worth and make their money back, because networks like NBC can now just do a super-low-budget show about people streaming from their homes and it’ll probably be successful enough to get picked up for a full season.
Speaking of, this isn’t so much speculation as it is just actual wondering, but are movies and TV shows going to address the pandemic at all? For instance, “The Blacklist” is set in a world much like ours but a little different. While some of the crimes the FBI investigates are “ripped from the headlines,” the show’s United States also has a different President than ours does, for instance. So, will their universe also have a pandemic?
I’ve wondered this a lot over the past few months… will movies and TV shows address the pandemic straight-on? Will we see characters wearing masks, social distancing, etc.? It’s probably a lot easier to do in a new show, like these Zoom-based comedies the networks are introducing, than something like “The Blacklist” or “Law & Order” that’s been on for several seasons and has its own pre-established universe.
However, if these production companies and showrunners want to keep their casts and crews safe, it would be best to go ahead and incorporate the pandemic into the show’s storyline. That way, it’ll cost less money (presumably) and be much safer. Now, I’m sure it’d also create the giant headache of “When would it be appropriate for our characters to take their masks off? When they’re talking with coworkers in the office? When they’re one-on-one with a friend, etc.” But, again, if you want to give an in-universe explanation for why the extras in the background are wearing masks, you’ll have to bite the bullet and incorporate it into the show.
And, honestly, I can see them making a romcom about mistaken identity because people were wearing masks and their love interests thought they were someone else.
Anyway, moving on:
- I imagine we’ll get plenty more movies and TV storylines centered on global warming and climate change. Maybe it won’t take the ‘humans are the virus and need to be destroyed’ route that “Hobbs & Shaw” did, but it will definitely still be there. It might be handled more like “Ferngully” or “Avatar,” to be honest, and emphasize that people need to take a more active role in caring for the environment. We all know that Hollywood loves virtue-signaling, and given everything that’s happening right now, climate change will be a major touchstone for the film industry in the coming years. I imagine that, in “Furious 10,” the crew will all be driving hybrid cars, right?
- I think we’ll also see a general push to ensure racial diversity in both movies and television. We’ll start seeing a lot more mostly-POC casts, such as the forthcoming movie “Judas and the Black Messiah” and TV shows “Black-ish” and “Fresh Off the Boat.” I think between a combination of how much money “Black Panther” made and the racial tension/virtue signaling thing, Hollywood will try to make a lot more movies that have a mostly Black cast but won’t alienate white people. Think something like “Tenet,” but with more Black actors. I both hope and expect we’ll see more Black superhero movies, more Black-led action movies, more Black-led horror movies. Hell, if they did Black-led period dramas (like a race-blind Jane Austen adaptation), I would be so there for it.
- One more thing and then I’ll shut up: I think it’s also fair to expect that, as regards the movie industry, the major studios (Warner Brothers, Disney, etc.) aren’t going to be taking ANY chances on unique properties anymore. They’ll leave that to the streaming services. If studios want to get butts in seats at movie theaters, we’re going to keep seeing a lot of prequels, sequels, spin-offs, and adaptations of already popular properties. There are also going to be more ensemble movies with big, big names attached to them, as we’ve seen already with the likes of “Dune” (2020), “The Lion King” (2019) and “Death on the Nile” (2020).
In short, the movie-making industry is going to want to try to recapture the magic of “Avengers: Endgame” (but without the whole mass-genocide plotline). They want something safe with lots of big names and plenty of spectacle and comedy. So, basically, every movie is going to try to be a Marvel movie now. We already saw it with “Star Wars.” Now prepare for that to be every movie that’s released in theaters for the next few years.
As for the TV industry, I think they’re going to focus on churning out low-cost shows because it’ll ultimately be a game of seeing what people are willing to watch these days. They’ll also try to focus on their streaming services (if applicable), because they know they have a captive audience there and can take more risks on that platform. So, basically, if it’s on TV, it’ll be very cheaply made; and if it’s streaming, it will probably have a bit more thought and money put into it.
No doubt, there will be more impacts than the potential ones I’ve listed here, especially on the distribution side. However, I just wanted to get the ball rolling on this discussion, because, honestly, I think we Nerds could dedicate an entire episode to this topic. No doubt some aspects of it will be brought up during Filmsplosion 2020 if not sooner.
But, what do you see as likely impacts on the film industry going forward? Let us know by leaving at message at 1-720-6NERDS5 or by emailing reelnerds@gmail.com.